🔗 Share this article

Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

However this year's race is profoundly different. The group of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and longtime also-rans improving in unison. In an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still